Population Boom Ahead as a Handful of States Expected To Gain Millions of Residents

A handful of states west of the Mississippi River are expected to see their populations skyrocket in the coming decades, researchers have found. In one projection for 2065, the number of Utah residents is expected to increase from nearly 3.6 million to 5.6 million, according to the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

That's an increase of 2 million people, or the approximate size of Idaho's population today.

“We think that migration will continue to be a more dominant aspect of our growth into the future," Mallory Bateman, director of demographic research at the institute, tells Realtor.com®. "That is due to several reasons, including an economy that continues to grow."

She says health care, professional services, finance, and construction industries are expected to lead growth through 2065 in a well-diversified, service-oriented economy.

"Utah has been especially appealing thanks to its strong job market, growing tech presence, relatively affordable housing, and a high quality of life," says Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com. "Those factors continue to draw in both young professionals and families."

Parts of the Mountain West, like Utah, "saw a big influx of residents during the pandemic as home shoppers looked for more space, lower housing costs, and quality-of-life perks like access to the outdoors and plenty of sunshine," says Jones. "These areas also have the room and the new-construction momentum to keep growing, especially as other parts of the country face higher prices and tighter housing supply."

Paul Benson, co-founder and CEO of Engel & Völkers Gestalt Group in Park City, UT, tells Realtor.com, "We are seeing more actual residential moves to Utah where we typically see more second-home buyers in places like Park City. These are actually people relocating their lives—not because they need to, but because they are choosing to."

Benson says bringing the 2034 Winter Olympics to Utah will help the state brace for its coming population surge. He believes Utah’s core infrastructure—roads, hospitals, and schools—is up to the task, and that the state is financially ready as well.

Smaller, high-demand areas like Park City, he notes, may face more pressure around traffic, workforce housing, and basic services. “But thanks to the Olympics coming, we’ll have to adapt either way,” he adds.

Other states projected to grow the fastest

Besides the Gardner institute’s 2065 projection for Utah, national population projections for 2050 released by the University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service show Idaho, Texas, North Dakota, and Nevada are also poised for rapid growth.

Qian Cai, Ph.D., director of the demographics research group at the center, tells Realtor.com, "High birth rates, strong job, and economic opportunities that attract domestic migration; expanding energy and tech sectors; more affordable housing; and immigration are among the main factors contributing to the fast growth in these states."

Utah, Idaho, Texas, North Dakota, and Nevada share a lot of the same advantages, according to Jones. "They generally offer more affordable homes, strong local economies, and the ability to add new housing," she says. "Many also offer appealing lifestyle benefits, whether that’s outdoor recreation in the Mountain West or fast-growing job hubs in places like Texas."

Idaho

Since 2020, nearly three-quarters of Idaho’s population growth—74.1%—has come from people moving to Idaho from other U.S. states. 

"As a local Idahoan who grew up in the Treasure Valley, the increase in out-of-towners has certainly grown over the last several years," says real estate agent Char Hiaring, founder of Sell My House Idaho. "I've noticed that many of my clients are looking to escape the growing costs and headaches of their previous states, normally from the West Coast or Southwest."

Analysis of data from the 2024 census shows that the population, currently at about 2 million residents, will hit 2.4 million by 2034.

By 2034, "our growth rate is expected to be about four times as fast as the rest of the nation,” Idaho Department of Labor Economist Sam Wolkenhauer said at a recent webinar, as reported by Boise State Public Radio.

Southwestern Idaho is expected to account for the bulk of the increase, according to Wolkenhauer, but growth is happening across the state. 

"With the amount of land and development potential Idaho has, I am definitely looking forward to seeing what this could mean for the real estate market," says Hiaring. "Overall, I think this is a wonderful time for buyers to start looking into Idaho as a potential landing spot."

Texas

By 2060, Texas' population is expected to hit 42.6 million, up from the current population of 31 million, according to the Texas Demographic Center at The University of Texas at San Antonio.

The state added more than half a million new residents—more than any other state—in 2024.

Dallas, Fort Worth, San Antonio, Austin, and Houston are the areas that are growing the most significantly, state demographer Lloyd Potter recently told the Texas Standard.

"Much of the growth that’s occurring there is happening as a function of net in-migration," said Potter. "So we’re seeing people moving into those areas largely because jobs are being created."

According to Potter, other factors that attract new residents include Texas' strong economy, the absence of state income tax, and the lower cost of living.

He noted that many people move to Texas from California—and said "the cost of living there, of course, is much higher than it is in Texas."

Wealth adviser Clint McCalla moved from San Diego to Austin in September 2023. "Almost everything costs less in Austin," he tells Realtor.com. "Housing is the biggest savings for our family, but taxes also certainly factored into our decision to leave California."

Real estate agent Jennifer Vokolek of Re/Max DFW Associates in Frisco, TX, says many of her clients have moved from the coasts. "Individuals look to the Lone Star State for more elbow room and less expensive housing compared to where they come from," she says. "There are also those that want a different political climate than where they moved from."

North Dakota

By 2050, North Dakota is projected to reach a population of 957,124, a 23% increase, according to the North Dakota Department of Commerce State Data Center.

"Migration is expected to continue to be a key factor in the state’s population growth between now and 2050," notes a 2024 population projections report.

Most rural counties in North Dakota are expected to continue to lose population to the more urban areas of the state, according to the report.

By 2050, nearly 30% of the state’s population is expected to reside in Cass County, home to Fargo.

"With a fast-growing population of more than 260,000 people in the region, Fargo-Moorhead boasts a young population, great schools, safe cities, and plenty of things to do year-round," Jayci Altenbernd, digital marketing manager at Visit Fargo-Moorhead, tells Realtor.com.

"The region offers a great job market with a lot of company diversity. We have all four seasons, with annual events and community celebrations throughout."

North Dakota has been among the nation’s fastest-growing states since 2010.

In addition to North Dakota's abundant job opportunities, people are also drawn to the state for “low taxes, strong education and health care systems, and unmatched quality of life with world-class outdoor recreation, hunting, and fishing,” North Dakota Gov. Kelly Armstrong said in a press release about the state's population growth. 

Nevada

By 2043, Nevada’s total population is predicted to grow from approximately 3.24 million to approximately 3.94 million, marking an increase of about 20.5%, according to the state demographer.

This growth is driven by migration, with the state having added an average of about 48,000 people per year since 2018.

But because the model doesn’t factor in local housing availability, shortages in some counties could curb the long-term growth estimates, according to the Nevada demographer's report.

California has been a key driver of Nevada’s growth, with census data showing that nearly 42,000 people moved from California to Nevada in 2023.

Colorado contributed the second-highest influx, adding close to 6,200 residents, while Hawaii followed with a little more than 3,000.

"Because Nevada has no state income tax, many people move there for its tax advantages," says Matt Doughty, division president of Marketplace Homes in Las Vegas.

"Beyond finances, Las Vegas offers a dry, warm climate ideal for snowbirds and retirees; a rapidly growing dining, entertainment, and sports scene; a lower cost of living compared to many major metro areas; and access to new construction, luxury communities, and resort-style living," says real estate agent Michele Sullivan of Douglas Eliman in Las Vegas. "It’s a rare blend of affordability, lifestyle, and opportunity."