Housing demand is off to a solid start in 2026

Housing 2026 is off and going, and so far this year, with mortgage rates near 6% and mortgage spreads near normal levels, 2026 looks to be the first year of actual growth in existing home sales in years.

Last week we had solid data in purchase apps and our weekly pending sales data — with inventory up, price-growth cooling and a healthier buyers versus sellers housing market. Growth is in the works as long as mortgage rates stay near 6% or lower.

Mortgage purchase application data

Traditionally I don’t count the data from last two weeks of the year and first week of the new year due to the holidays, so last week was the first opportunity to track the purchase application data in 2026 and we started with a 16% week-to-week growth and a 13% year-over-year print.

It’s been scarce lately to get a double-double, but last week this data line came out swinging. These applications look out 30-90 days and we need to see at least 12-14 weeks of positive week-to-week data to get something meaningful. So far:

• 1  positive week-to-week print
• 0 negative week-to-week prints
• 1 week of double-digit year-over-year growth

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Weekly pending sales

Our weekly pending home sales provide a week-to-week view of the data, though pending sales can be influenced by holidays and short-term fluctuations. Last week showed year-over-year and multi-year growth. Our weekly pending sales data will typically be reflected in the existing home sales report 30-60 days after the pending sales. Last week was our highest weekly pending home sales data in many years. 

Weekly pending sales for last week in the past few years:

• 2026: 50,096
• 2025: 44,866

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10-year yield and mortgage rates

In the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the following ranges:

• Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 6.75%
• The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%

Last week was an interesting one, as the 10-year yield closed at multi-month highs. But Friday’s action in the bond market was the most interesting part, as the 10-year yield rose after Trump said he would like Kevin Hassett to stay in his job as head of the White House Economic Council, which means he won’t be the next Fed Chair. The bond market didn’t seem to like idea of the other frontrunner for Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, taking the position and the 10-year yield closed the week at 4.23%. I have a hashtag going called ‘Never Warsh,’ so my view is clear. My pick would be Christopher Waller, who is still in the running but less likely than Warsh.

It will be interesting if bond yields keep selling off this week, or we just fall back down and stick around this low-level channel that we have been in since September, with the 10-year yield being mostly between 4%-4.20%

Mortgage rates have been hovering at the low 6% level since Trump’s announcement directing Fannie and Freddie to buy $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities, and we ended the week at 6.07%. There wasn’t much volatility in mortgage rates last week as they ranged between 6.01%-6.07% according to Mortgage News Daily, and ended the week at 6.04% according to the Polly mortgage rate lock data in HousingWire’s Mortgage Rate Center.

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Mortgage spreads

Mortgage spreads were the best story for housing last year, as mortgage rates would not have gotten toward 6% without the improvement in the spreads, and that improvement has continued in 2026, especially after the president’s MBS announcement.

Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged between 1.60% and 1.80%. If today’s spreads were as bad as they were at the peak of 2023, mortgage rates would be 1.22% higher. Now that we are closer to normal, mortgage pricing can stay lower for longer. This is really preventing mortgage rates from heading back over 7% even if the labor data improves — better spreads limit the damage of higher bond yields.

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Weekly housing inventory data

Housing inventory was a very positive story in 2025, as inventory grew and price-growth cooled, which helps affordability over time. Inventory growth at one point last year was 33% year over year, but as demand picked up in the second half of 2025, that growth rate cooled down to 10%. Year-over-year comps are going to be harder to show the same type of inventory growth in the spring, but any growth is a healthy outcome for the housing market. Last week saw 10.5% year-over-year growth.

• Weekly inventory change: (Jan. 10-Jan. 17): Inventory rose from 686,784 to 695,628
• Same week last year: (Jan. 11-Jan 18): Inventory rose from 624,375 to 632,076

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New listings data

The goal for new listings in 2026 is not just to return to 80,000 new listings per week during the seasonal peak periods, but to grow above 80,000 in some weeks. Last year, I was excited that we got to 80,000, which is the low end of normal new listings, as we typically range between 80,000 and 100,000, but once we hit that level, we didn’t see much growth. 

To give you another perspective, during the years of the housing bubble crash, new listings were soaring between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for many years. Here’s last week’s new listings data over the past two years:

• 2026: 50,303
• 2025: 45,835

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Price-cut percentage

In a typical year, about one-third of homes experience price reductions, highlighting the housing market’s dynamic nature. Many homeowners adjust their sale prices as inventory levels rise and mortgage rates remain elevated. For 2026, let’s see how the supply-and-demand equilibrium works when mortgage rates are near 6%, not at 7% or higher, which is what the market had to deal with from 2022-2025 at different points. 

The price-cut percentage for last week:

• 2026: 34.7%
• 2025: 33%

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The week ahead: Trump, Davos, Supreme Court and more

On the economic side this week, we are going to get the PCE inflation report, which is what the Fed tracks. This might be a tad hotter than the CPI report, which came in lower than estimates. Pending home sales will also come out, and last month’s report was a beat of estimates. Jobless claims data, released every week, remains historically low.

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But maybe the most interesting news this week will be on the political side and I would keep an eye out on the bond market reaction to any news about the Fed. We have the Davos meeting this week, where Trump is going to discuss new housing policy and potentially name the new Fed Chair. And on Wednesday the Supreme Court is scheduled to hear the Lisa Cook case, which will determine if and when a president can fire a Fed governor, so it’s a big week for sure.