Zohran Mamdani Wins New York City Mayoral Election—After Promising Sweeping Tax and Housing Changes

Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani has won the New York City mayoral election, beating out former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa.

The race was called for Mamdani by the Associated Press around 9:34 p.m. on Tuesday—just over 30 minutes after polls closed. There were still at least a few hundred thousand votes to be counted.

Mamdani, 34, ran a campaign that focused on the cost of living—a hot-button issue in New York, where roughly 70% of households are renters. New York City had one of the highest-turnout races in years.

"With Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani's victory, New Yorkers have sent a clear message: They want solutions to the city’s housing affordability crisis," says Realtor.com® senior economist Jake Krimmel.

"For voters tonight, it is unmistakable: The city’s economic and political future depends on making New York a more affordable place to live."

Median asking rents in the city sit near $3,600, according to Realtor.com data. This accounts for more than half of the typical household's monthly pre-tax income.

"With a housing vacancy rate near 1.4%, the lowest since 1968, New Yorkers looking for their next move feel locked in place and priced out at once," adds Krimmel.

"Economists have long warned that housing affordability is essential to a thriving, dynamic city, yet New York has added housing at a snail's pace, permitting roughly 30 new homes per 1,000 residents annually since 2014, about half the rate of Boston. The result is a housing shortage decades in the making."

Mamdani made rent freezes a central campaign promise. However, solving affordability in the long run will also depend on both accelerating the construction of affordable housing—another of his campaign pledges—and massively expanding market-rate housing supply to keep pace with demand.

"If realized, that combination could one day restore balance to the city’s housing market and make New York much more affordable. For now, though, one thing is clear: This election was a mandate on housing affordability, and tonight’s outcome shows how important this is for New Yorkers," says Krimmel.

People have been moving out of New York because they don't have housing options, warns Rachel Fee, executive director of the New York Housing Conference.

"If this is not addressed, it will take a toll on our economy," she says.

Will wealthy New Yorkers flee?

Mamdani critics have said that a win would be a blow to the Big Apple's economy and cause millionaires to flee the city.

Fox News host Sean Hannity has claimed there will be a "mass exodus" from New York if Mamdani wins.

On Monday, in a post on X, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said, "After the polls close tomorrow night, I will impose a 100% tariff on anyone moving to Texas from NYC."

And closer to home, a growing number of affluent New Yorkers, wary of a Mamdani win, have been quietly eyeing up properties in places such as Westchester County, NY, and New Jersey in what has become known as the "Mamdani effect."

The reasons for wanting to make a move vary. Some cite fears of higher taxes or shifting housing policies, and others point to crime, congestion, or political fatigue. Together, though, they're fueling what agents across the tristate area describe as a fresh wave of migration that has ignited bidding wars and record-breaking sales beyond the city limits.

“Yes, the election is definitely playing a big role in buyers’ motivation to relocate," Taylor Lucyk, broker and founder of the Taylor Lucyk Group in Bergen County, NJ, told Realtor.com.

In Westchester County, real estate agents Zach Harrison and Heather Harrison, of The Harrison Team at Compass, told Realtor.com they had seen an uptick in business ahead of the election.

"While several factors are fueling this resurgence, concerns about the mayoral election keep coming up among buyers from New York. City residents eyeing the suburbs have cited a potential Mamdani victory as a key reason for making their move," they said.

“Buyers consistently mentioned three main concerns: taxes, safety, and more space. Showing activity this fall is up 28.1% compared to June, before the primary election," Zach noted.

"Nearly all of the Westchester towns have no resident income tax, and many potential buyers have voiced concerns that resident income taxes in the city may be on the rise."