EXCLUSIVE: Off-Market Sales Cost North Carolina Homeowners $406 Million in 2025

North Carolina homeowners across 16 counties who sold their homes privately—through for-sale-by-owner deals, whisper listings, or other off-market routes—collectively left an estimated $406 million on the table in 2025, new data shows.

That works out to about $51,000 per transaction on average, or roughly the equivalent of a 10% down payment plus closing costs on a median-priced home in Raleigh, NC. And it’s not a mystery where the gap comes from.

“It's unsurprising to find that off-market sellers are not getting the full value of their homes,” says Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com®. “The market is not rich enough with buyers for off-market sales to thrive. Instead, sellers should prioritize getting as many eyes on their listings as possible.”

It’s a lesson of economics that new analysis powered by Sightline from RealReports and Doorify MLS proves outright: Homes marketed through MLSs sold for more than 13% more than comparable off-MLS sales across a 16-county region—an advantage that grew even larger for lower-priced homes, where some off-market sellers could have sold for double or more.

The findings mirror a November 2025 analysis in San Francisco, where private sales cost some homeowners more than $300,000.

Together, the data put hard numbers on a long-running debate in real estate: whether off-market sales are an easier way to move, or a costlier one. And in a market where buyers are more rate-sensitive and competition is thinner than it was at the pandemic peak, the findings show that the cost of limiting exposure is substantial.

In some counties, off-market sales lagged sale prices of MLS-listed properties by 30% or more

While the overall gap between on- and off-market sales is striking, the county-level data reveals just how extreme the difference can be.

The analysis, which covered more than 20,800 on-MLS transactions and nearly 8,000 off-MLS transactions in Doorify MLS’ 16-county footprint, excluded non-arm’s-length deals and atypical land sales to isolate typical home transactions. 

In several Triangle-area counties, off-market sellers earned significantly less than their MLS-listed counterparts.

In Chatham County, for example, sellers whose properties were not listed on an MLS earned an average of $188,000 less than those whose whose properties were—selling for nearly 40% below on-market prices. Granville County posted an even higher percentage gap, with off-market sellers leaving an average of $128,000 on the table, a 58% shortfall. In Orange County, the average gap was $123,000, or about 31% lower than comparable MLS sales.

All three counties fall into the broader Triangle region, an area that has gone through rapid change since the pandemic.

“The North Carolina Triangle was hit hard by the pandemic-era buying frenzy of 2021 and 2022,” says Berner. “The inventory of homes for sale plummeted and prices soared as buyers targeted the region for its relatively affordable homes and strong job opportunities.”

That surge of buyer interest spurred a wave of new homebuilding across the state. In 2024, North Carolina was one of just seven states that together accounted for more than half of all new residential construction permits nationwide. That momentum paired with the relatively affordable home prices earned North Carolina a B+ on its affordability report card from Realtor.com, ranking fifth in the nation.

But that new inventory may be contributing to the sharp differences in outcomes between on- and off-market listings, particularly in fast-growing, lower-cost counties, says Matt Fowler, CEO of Doorify.

“Where you've got a high percentage of new construction and affordable homes, those benefit most from market exposure,” he says.

He points to the lowest price segment in these counties, where the analysis found that MLS-listed homes sold for up to twice as much as similar properties sold privately.

While higher-priced homes still saw meaningful gains from being listed on the MLS, the percentage gap narrowed as prices rose, even when the dollar differences remained substantial.

That dynamic tracks with what Berner is seeing across the Triangle.

“The MLS is the best way to get listings exposed to buyers, especially in a period with little competition between buyers when sellers want their best chance of getting a strong offer,” he says. “Underpricing can be a problem for any off-market seller, but especially at the low end of the price distribution where it's harder to find comparable properties, the risk is highest."

The myth of the 'better' private sale

“We’re seeing a growing narrative that private networks and pocket listings are somehow better for consumers,” says James Rogers, co-founder of RealReports. 

While private listings have long been the domain of celebrities and other high-profile sellers, they moved into the mainstream during 2021 and 2022, when everyday homeowners began opting for quieter, more curated sales.

The appeal was straightforward: Skip the showings and avoid the spectacle.

But the data now makes clear that what many sellers gained in convenience, they often gave up in price.

“At scale, transparency and broad market exposure still win—and Sightline gives MLSs the ability to demonstrate that with real numbers, not anecdotes,” says Rogers.

“This data gives us something the industry desperately needs right now: proof,” adds Fowler. “In our market, sellers who listed on the MLS consistently achieved better outcomes. In some counties, the difference was dramatic—tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars more per sale. That’s not theory, that’s real money staying in homeowners’ pockets.”

For instance, in Wake County, on-MLS homes sold for about $55,000 more on average, a nearly 13% premium. Alamance County posted a similar $58,000 gap, or roughly 22%. In Harnett County, the difference was $22,000 (7%), while Johnston County saw a $39,000 (12%) spread. Only Durham County showed rough parity, with about a 1% difference between on- and off-MLS outcomes.

Fowler says he knows firsthand the difference hard data can make in reframing the off-market debate. When he sold his own lake house, he chose to go it alone, leaning on his background as an appraiser and MLS manager. He approached a handful of buyers and sold at a price he felt comfortable with.

But he says, “If my [agent] had come to me and said, Matt, I know you think the delta here is 4%, but I can prove to you it's 40%, yeah, I probably would have got a hotel room or something and let him sell the house.”

What sellers can take from this

Fowler’s hope is that the findings change the tone of the decision, especially at the moment it matters most. 

Instead of relying on instinct, marketing claims, or an agent’s pitch, he wants sellers to be able to see at a glance what limiting exposure has historically cost home sellers just like them, and to use that reality check to decide whether privacy is worth the trade-off.

Just as importantly, he wants the data to raise the floor for everyone’s advice.

If a private network or delayed listing is being recommended, the recommendation should come with a quantified “what it could cost you” alongside any promised benefits, rather than vague assurances.

And if the numbers show the opposite in a given segment, he wants that to be visible, too. 

The end goal isn’t to steer every seller into the same path; it’s to make sure homeowners walk into one of the biggest financial transactions of their lives with something stronger than a gut feeling: a clear, local, measurable sense of what the market tends to reward.